Labours’ vote does begin to pick up over the last two groups, this may be due to some older people beginning to believe that the Government should provide for them better and that Labour is best for them, or it is due to a high level of partisan support in the older groups which is now dying out. Hypothesis 1: This was again shown to be correct. Those who read a right wing paper are more likely to vote Conservative; those who read a left wing paper are more likely to vote Labour.The two figures of most interest from table 3 are those who vote Labour and read a left wing paper, and those who vote right wing and read a right wing paper (figures in bold).
This shows a very high correlation between the two, 79% of those who voted Conservative also read a right wing paper, 67.4% of those who voted Labour read a left wing paper. What is also interesting is those who voted for ‘other’ parties did not greatly favour one kind of paper; and those who read an independent paper do not overwhelmingly support a particular party. Which way this relationship goes (i.e. media influences vote or media reflects peoples beliefs) is impossible to tell.Hypothesis 3: Is shown to be correct.
Table 5 shows that there is a difference in voting patterns between the North and the South. In the North, Labour have a majority of 10.3% over the Conservatives; in the South, the Conservatives have a 28.
7% lead over Labour. In the Midlands, the Conservatives also have a high lead over Labour (24.5%). This shows that most of the concentration for support for Labour is in the North, whereas the Conservatives dominate the South and Midlands.Hypothesis 4: Is shown to be correct. As Table 11 shows, Those on a higher income are more likely to vote Conservative whilst those on a lower income are more likely to vote Labour. As already discussed, the Chi Square is high enough to allow the theory to be generalised onto the wider population.
Multivariate Analysis. This shows that the four hypotheses when put together can go some way in explaining left and right wing support. All of the four variables have an effect on voting behaviour in the way discussed above.Conclusion.This research note was an investigation of how an individual votes, given a number of personal social and economic attributes. The four attributes examined were age, income, newspaper read and area of the country they come from.
The results show that a great deal can be learnt from just these four characteristics and when put together they give a good indicator of an individuals voting behaviour. the four variables were cross tabulated with voting and the results printed in this research note. A little amount of analysis of the data together with some tentative conclusions have been put forward.
There are a number of shortfalls in this paper. Firstly, I would have liked to have had more time to examine more variables such as race, gender and class to see if they have an effect. I would have prefered to have analysied the datat better and brought about more in depth discussion of the material. I would have liked to have examined the theory that people now vote on a more individualistic basis (see Theory section) however, this requires time series data and a great deal more time.