The last 23rdof June 2016 the UK has voted to leave the European Union. This event has beenan historic one that will mark a before and after for both economies. When Iactually knew what was about to happen in the European Union, I just could notbelieve that one country wanted its independence from the strongest economicunion in the world. Nowadays, this important decision has been taken for the firsttime, and the UK-EU negotiations have started.
It is uncertain which is goingto be the future of both of them, but it is clear that they future and economicgrowth will mostly depend on future negotiations. In this essay I will try togive my point of view regarding the negatives effects from which I have beensee and learning since this important fact has occurred and during the lastseminar of doing business after Brexit in UK and EU. Even though therewill be almost two years of the UK exit, there still many negotiations toconclude. For instance, one of the hardest ones will be the following: The rightsof all the EU citizens living, studying or working in the Uk and vice versa, alsothe financial obligation that UK still having with EU, the further tradingnegotiation that will affect certain countries that are strong related with Uk,for example, the Northern Ireland and the European Court of Justice and theWTO. If we analyze thetrading negotiating scenario, UK has not only trade agreements with theEuropean Union, but also with the WTO members under the WTO rules, so it willlose automatically the free-trade agreements and it will have to re-negotiatetariffs with 163 countries.
Which for some of them, UK is not anymoreinteresting to have business with if it’s not part of the European Union, so itwill face many risks to be rejected from others which will produce a loosing ofthe pound making everything more expensive for them and reducing a very importantpart of its importations and exportations, therefore in its trade balance. If the tradingnegotiations are not beneficial for the UK, we can infer which player is goingto be the more affected in terms of growth rate, GDP, tourism, exchange rate, etc.It is not a surprise that the Brexit was a very bad decision, it is not eithera surprise that the person (Nigel Farage) who was more motivated in “gettingback his country” and encouraging millions of people with highly misogynisticideas, is now the person which is proposing a second referendum in order tomake vote all the people who didn’t vote the first time, and so, we just canturn over the book page. I only hope, thatcurrently, many people in the world are looking deeply inside in the post Brexiteffects, the current negotiations, the economical and political impact that abad decision has brought up. Only in this way, we can prevent liberal radicalmovements such as Spain with Catalonia or North and South Italy, showing them beyondthan political and historical interests, there are many other things to takeaccount before of having a deep recession To conclude I willsay that besides the event that the UK is the first member to leave officiallythe EU, the reason why Brexit is such a great deal is that we just don’t knowhow it will turn out yet.
It’s a big, dramatic move that will take years tocomplete; years of shifts that will impact the pound and European markets alongthe way. It will certainly make the UK countries seem less hospitable to newimmigrants but whether Brexit will deter terrorism, buoy the economy and makethe UK stronger through independence has yet to be seen. So maybe the big dealis just not knowing the extent of the impact on jobs, homes, traderelationships with other countries and whether countries outside of the unionwill see a fragmented Europe as a weakened one.