p.p1 limited to one week, is small. But

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The scenario is a carefully thought out answer to the question: “What will happen, presumably?” Or “What happens if …?” Thus, the scenario differs from both the forecast and the vision that tend to hide risks. The scenario, on the other hand, provides an opportunity to manage risks.

It is also clear that scenario planning involves not only the development of scenarios, but something more closely related to strategic planning.

All people create scripts. The human brain always generates scenarios of the near future. It rushes ahead and processes information about what should happen. All living organisms, for example people and organizations, need a properly functioning feedback system, trying to know what happened. People need to learn from what has been done. But to choose the future path, information about the future is needed. We need systems of “advanced communication with the future”

Even if the mind constantly creates scenarios, individuals or organizations are much less likely to develop them systematically. Scenario planning in companies and organizations is mainly limited to attempts imagine or calculate the consequences of alternative solutions. Humans/Companies are wondering what the consequences may be, for example, a certain transaction or certain actions of one of the competitors. However, systematic work on scenarios of events in the outside world is undoubtedly rarely done. One of the reasons is that such work requires more time and knowledge. If people/organizations consider scenario planning not only as a pleasant exercise for the mind, then someone in the organization should be responsible for the continuity of the process, and one or more people – to draw conclusions from the scenarios and analyze the possible consequences for the choice of strategies, etc.

Scenarios are bright descriptions of the most plausible variants of the future. Figure 1 illustrates the differences between the three main categories of the future. Usually the farther forward look, the more opportunities appear. For example, person does not have such a variety of options for choosing even a week ahead. The number of possible options for future events, limited to one week, is small. But if he/she look at five, ten or more years ahead, the alternatives become much larger. Some variants of the future seem more likely today than others; some are preferable, some are more desirable, and the desired events often differ from the most likely ones. At the same time, the most desired future,own vision of how he/she would like to live the life, may not even fall into the circle of “possible” options.

Speaking in the planning language, individuals and organisations are constantly building plans that include projections, scenarios and visions. As an organization, it is often that rigidly plan of actions based on different types of forecasts. In stable conditions and within a short time frame, forecasts are both necessary and effective. For decision-making, risk reduction and certainty needed. Namely, these are the predictions.


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