Background analysis of this aim over different scenarios

Background In the early 2013, the then Prime Minister of UK –David Cameron announced to hold an in/out referendum on UK’s membership of theEuropean Union.

On February 20th, 2016 he set the date for the voteto be held on June 23, 2016. Over 30 million people participated in the votingprocess with a 51.9% voting to Leave the European Union (Brexit). Post thevoting results, the country has been going through a period of uncertainty –right from Cameron’s resignation followed by a re-election process electingTheresa May as the Prime Minister and eventually the snap election where theruling party lost its strength in the house by a margin alongside a lot ofdebates, news, meetings between the leaders on both the sides.In the meanwhile, the Supreme Court of UK ruled onArticle 50 granting the right to final vote to the UK Parliament on the final Brexitdeal.  The current UK Prime Minsiter – Theresa May marked thebeginning of Brexit process by triggered the Article 50 in March 2017 byformally informing the European Union about Britain’s decision to leave it,thereby beginning the two-year period during which the UK has to negotiate theterms of its exit, transitional arrangements and variety of other issuesincluding future trade, status of EU citizens already inside the UK and BritishCitizens in other countries and border issues with Ireland. There have been many estimates about the potentialimpact of UK’s exit on its GDP, Employment, Immigration and Trade relationshipsbut we will only know in future depending on the eventual form of Brexit andthe ability of UK to develop new trade partners outside of EU.   Aims and Objectives:  Research aim :  This proposal aims to study the implications andeffects on UK in a situation wherein UK formally quits the European Union(Brexit).

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This will involve analysis of this aim over different scenarios ofexit (soft / hard Brexit) that may play out based on the information we have sofar. Each of these scenarios would have different outcomes for the UK and will beanalysed in detail.  Given the complexities involved in the negotiationsand a number of issues needing debate, negotiations and resolutions between UKand EU, it still remains to be seen as to how the final Brexit deal will looklike.

Therefore, scenario analysis will be an useful tool, because, it willallow us test various assumptions and their impact. Research objective(s) (the more specificresearch aims) : The objective of the research is to study the effect ofBrexit on UK particularly for its GDP, Employment, Immigration and Budget. Further,the paper will also try to examine how the Brexit is likely to shape up in thefuture and the areas concerning it. The aim is to identify key issues that needto be addressed by UK which could facilitate a smooth transition and explore ifthere are any possible wins out of this decision that could be accrued.

Thepaper will study the background of EU with reference to UK’s membership, thebenefits UK has reaped out of the same and the changes that are likely toaffect these benefits post Brexit while also exploring the possibilities ofUK’s enhanced relationship with other emerging economies with favorable tradedeals. Possible research questions and/or hypotheses (eachresearch question could have one of more hypotheses. However, there should notbe more hypotheses than research questions).1.

       What kind of a deal is Britain likely to sign withEU post its exit from the union?2.       What will be the effect of Brexit on UK over mediumto longer term timeline for areas with particular references to keymacro-economic indicators like GDP Growth Rate, Inflation, Unemployment figuresetc3.       What will be the implications for the government’sbalance sheet in terms of the Costs or Benefits accrued due to Brexit4.       How will Brexit affect the net immigration to UK?5.       What will UK need to do in order to be able tothrive and prosper being a non-member of the EU  (Part II)      Rationale and Contribution Description of TopicThe papers focus is on the topic of Brexit – theprocess of UK’s departure as a member of European Union.

While the Britishpeople have already voted in favour of Leave and the actions of triggeringArticle 50 along with other developments in UK suggest enough evidence tobelieve that Brexit is due to happen. I have attempted to study the way Brexitis likely to happen – what are the various options / scenarios likely to playout and their implications for UK.  Rationale for choice of TopicUK’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) is believedto have profound significance in terms of its impact on various countries,sectors, companies, individuals and future trade arrangements. There have beennumerous debates on Brexit which has been on the headlines and cover pages ofmedia all over since over two years, particularly after June 2016 when thevoting was held and results announced.I believe Brexit is an important subject, which needsto be analysed in detail. While there have been a number of reports fromvarious think tanks on this subject, I believe there is a gap in terms ofavailability of research that can provide a big picture analysis giving a briefbackground, likely way forward and the impact of them.This paper will attempt to present a clear picture ofall that has happened so far and the likely way forward along with its impact onUK over medium to long term.  Literature Review (Primarysource: Original research from journals, articles or conferences, originalmaterials such as historical documents; Secondary source: Evaluations, reviewsor syntheses of original work; Tertiary source: Broadly scoped material puttogether usually from secondary sources to provide an overview, e.

g. atextbook) A number of research reports by EU Think Tankand various other universities, academicians and firms is available for review.   Quite a lot of literature that have appearedin the headlines generally have put up figures in terms of potential loss ofGDP of an “X%” by 2025/2030. While some of these headlines look exciting, whilesome scary, the primary focus of this paper’s literature review is to throwclarity on these headlines to the audience by explaining them the underlyinganalysis and assumption behind such studies.

The key to literature review onBrexit is to understand the underlying assumptions made by the authorsparticularly in terms of the form of Brexit assumed, which in turn decides onthe important factors like barriers on trade, immigration and investment.


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